FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated June 1, 2026
| Team | Gr.Group | Qualify | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | OVR.Overall | Att.Attack | Def.Defense | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Spain | H | ✓ | 75.4% | 99.6% | 75.0% | 52.7% | 40.8% | 27.8% | 16.7% | 98.0 | 98.4 | 97.5 |
 | Argentina | J | ✓ | 78.2% | 98.6% | 66.3% | 53.2% | 36.8% | 23.7% | 14.8% | 97.9 | 96.7 | 98.8 |
 | Brazil | C | ✓ | 64.9% | 98.0% | 69.0% | 47.8% | 30.0% | 16.4% | 9.3% | 96.2 | 95.6 | 96.8 |
 | England | L | ✓ | 68.3% | 98.2% | 71.4% | 48.0% | 29.5% | 16.6% | 9.3% | 96.4 | 94.8 | 97.6 |
 | Portugal | K | ✓ | 52.5% | 96.8% | 71.2% | 44.7% | 26.2% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 95.7 | 96.1 | 95.4 |
 | France | I | ✓ | 57.3% | 96.0% | 69.9% | 44.3% | 27.7% | 14.9% | 7.9% | 95.7 | 94.8 | 96.5 |
 | Colombia | K | ✓ | 42.6% | 95.1% | 66.9% | 39.1% | 22.6% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 95.0 | 92.0 | 97.2 |
 | Germany | E | ✓ | 58.0% | 98.3% | 64.2% | 33.2% | 18.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 92.7 | 97.2 | 85.7 |
 | Netherlands | F | ✓ | 51.7% | 92.1% | 49.4% | 32.8% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 92.9 | 95.2 | 90.0 |
 | Belgium | G | ✓ | 63.6% | 95.3% | 66.9% | 37.8% | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 91.0 | 94.0 | 87.4 |
 | Uruguay | H | ✓ | 23.1% | 94.0% | 42.5% | 24.6% | 13.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 91.1 | 89.4 | 92.7 |
 | Ecuador | E | ✓ | 35.0% | 95.1% | 52.5% | 24.2% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 89.8 | 87.3 | 92.0 |
 | Norway | I | ✓ | 27.7% | 87.9% | 49.7% | 24.3% | 12.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 90.3 | 92.8 | 87.3 |
 | Switzerland | B | ✓ | 50.7% | 97.2% | 66.3% | 27.9% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 89.0 | 90.4 | 87.5 |
 | Morocco | C | ✓ | 25.1% | 89.3% | 45.0% | 25.1% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 89.8 | 82.0 | 95.3 |
 | Croatia | L | ✓ | 26.2% | 90.0% | 42.3% | 19.4% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 89.0 | 89.1 | 88.9 |
 | Japan | F | ✓ | 30.5% | 81.8% | 35.0% | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 88.9 | 88.6 | 89.2 |
 | Mexico | A | ✓ | 56.4% | 93.6% | 56.9% | 25.0% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 84.2 | 80.2 | 87.8 |
 | USA | D | ✓ | 33.6% | 78.5% | 46.7% | 19.7% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 78.6 | 81.9 | 75.1 |
 | Senegal | I | ✓ | 13.7% | 73.4% | 31.7% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 84.8 | 78.9 | 89.8 |
 | Turkey | D | ✓ | 25.8% | 68.8% | 37.0% | 13.6% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 83.6 | 87.7 | 78.9 |
 | Canada | B | ✓ | 43.2% | 95.6% | 56.9% | 21.2% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 81.3 | 79.0 | 83.6 |
 | Paraguay | D | ✓ | 22.9% | 67.3% | 35.2% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 82.9 | 78.6 | 86.8 |
 | Austria | J | ✓ | 12.8% | 76.0% | 23.1% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 84.5 | 87.9 | 80.7 |
 | Australia | D | ✓ | 17.8% | 61.1% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 81.1 | 78.2 | 83.9 |
 | Iran | G | ✓ | 19.5% | 73.7% | 31.9% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 79.5 | 73.9 | 84.5 |
 | Scotland | C | ✓ | 9.3% | 68.7% | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 79.4 | 80.3 | 78.4 |
 | South Korea | A | ✓ | 20.7% | 72.8% | 32.9% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 78.9 | 75.1 | 82.5 |
 | Sweden | F | ✓ | 11.9% | 58.2% | 16.4% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 80.3 | 83.8 | 76.5 |
 | Czechia | A | ✓ | 17.2% | 68.2% | 28.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 76.8 | 78.7 | 74.7 |
 | Algeria | J | ✓ | 6.7% | 58.7% | 14.8% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 78.6 | 80.5 | 76.6 |
 | Ivory Coast | E | ✓ | 6.7% | 67.3% | 19.9% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 74.1 | 71.7 | 76.5 |
 | Tunisia | F | ✓ | 5.9% | 38.9% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 74.1 | 67.6 | 80.1 |
 | Egypt | G | ✓ | 11.7% | 61.1% | 21.7% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 73.7 | 67.8 | 79.3 |
 | Jordan | J | ✓ | 2.4% | 31.8% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.2 | 66.3 | 72.0 |
 | New Zealand | G | ✓ | 5.1% | 37.8% | 9.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.2 | 61.4 | 69.0 |
 | South Africa | A | ✓ | 5.7% | 37.9% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.5 | 61.2 | 69.8 |
 | DR Congo | K | ✓ | 2.4% | 33.0% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.0 | 65.1 | 72.7 |
 | Ghana | L | ✓ | 2.3% | 32.0% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.4 | 61.0 | 69.7 |
 | Iraq | I | ✓ | 1.2% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.9 | 54.5 | 69.2 |
 | Uzbekistan | K | ✓ | 2.5% | 34.2% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 70.2 | 69.0 | 71.4 |
 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | ✓ | 5.0% | 53.6% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.7 | 70.4 | 61.0 |
 | Panama | L | ✓ | 3.2% | 41.6% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.7 | 69.4 | 70.0 |
 | Haiti | C | ✓ | 0.7% | 15.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 58.9 | 60.0 | 57.8 |
 | Saudi Arabia | H | ✓ | 0.8% | 27.9% | 4.6% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.7 | 56.1 | 67.2 |
 | Cape Verde | H | ✓ | 0.7% | 25.1% | 3.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 60.4 | 56.5 | 64.4 |
 | Qatar | B | ✓ | 1.1% | 20.1% | 2.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 53.3 | 57.1 | 49.7 |
 | Curacao | E | ✓ | 0.3% | 9.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 50.0 | 50.5 | 49.6 |