FIFA WORLD CUP 2026
Progression Chances
Each team's probability of reaching each stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on 10,000 simulations.
Updated March 28, 2026
| Team | Gr.Group | Qualify | Win Group | Reach R32 | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Champ.Champion | OVR.Overall | Att.Attack | Def.Defense | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Spain | H | ✓ | 75.9% | 99.5% | 76.4% | 53.6% | 40.9% | 28.7% | 18.1% | 98.0 | 98.4 | 97.6 |
 | Argentina | J | ✓ | 77.7% | 98.5% | 66.4% | 52.2% | 35.4% | 23.2% | 14.2% | 97.8 | 96.2 | 98.8 |
 | England | L | ✓ | 68.4% | 98.1% | 71.3% | 47.9% | 30.4% | 17.1% | 9.6% | 96.6 | 95.0 | 97.8 |
 | Brazil | C | ✓ | 65.6% | 98.0% | 68.1% | 45.2% | 27.9% | 15.3% | 8.9% | 96.2 | 95.2 | 97.0 |
 | Portugal | K | ✓ | 51.2% | 97.1% | 69.3% | 42.5% | 25.3% | 14.7% | 7.9% | 95.6 | 95.9 | 95.3 |
 | France | I | ✓ | 54.1% | 95.4% | 68.8% | 43.2% | 26.4% | 13.7% | 7.4% | 95.5 | 94.3 | 96.4 |
 | Colombia | K | ✓ | 44.6% | 96.1% | 66.8% | 39.5% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 95.4 | 92.2 | 97.6 |
 | Germany | E | ✓ | 58.8% | 98.1% | 63.6% | 33.7% | 18.9% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 92.8 | 97.0 | 86.2 |
 | Netherlands | F | ✓ | 52.9% | 91.7% | 50.6% | 31.8% | 17.1% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 93.1 | 95.2 | 90.4 |
 | Belgium | G | ✓ | 65.0% | 94.7% | 64.0% | 35.0% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 90.9 | 93.6 | 87.6 |
 | Uruguay | H | ✓ | 22.5% | 93.3% | 41.1% | 23.0% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 90.7 | 88.8 | 92.4 |
 | Norway | I | ✓ | 28.0% | 86.6% | 49.3% | 25.3% | 12.7% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 90.5 | 92.9 | 87.7 |
 | Ecuador | E | ✓ | 34.3% | 93.8% | 50.8% | 23.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 89.5 | 86.6 | 91.9 |
 | Switzerland | B | ✓ | 39.1% | 93.5% | 59.8% | 26.1% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 89.2 | 90.3 | 88.1 |
 | Japan | F | ✓ | 29.0% | 82.1% | 35.8% | 18.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 88.6 | 88.3 | 89.0 |
 | Italy | B* | 72.3% | 23.5% | 66.3% | 41.4% | 19.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 88.9 | 87.0 | 90.7 |
 | Croatia | L | ✓ | 26.1% | 89.4% | 42.6% | 18.3% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 89.2 | 89.0 | 89.4 |
 | USA | D | ✓ | 39.5% | 83.5% | 48.5% | 21.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 80.2 | 82.8 | 77.4 |
 | Morocco | C | ✓ | 23.2% | 87.4% | 41.3% | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 88.4 | 80.0 | 94.5 |
 | Denmark | A* | 59.0% | 25.6% | 52.3% | 33.3% | 15.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 89.8 | 89.7 | 89.9 |
 | Senegal | I | ✓ | 16.5% | 76.0% | 35.3% | 15.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 87.1 | 80.5 | 92.4 |
 | Mexico | A | ✓ | 44.1% | 89.8% | 50.9% | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 83.6 | 79.5 | 87.4 |
 | Canada | B | ✓ | 35.4% | 92.2% | 51.8% | 20.6% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 82.3 | 79.8 | 84.7 |
 | Paraguay | D | ✓ | 23.4% | 69.2% | 33.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 82.5 | 77.9 | 86.7 |
 | Iran | G | ✓ | 18.2% | 72.8% | 31.3% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 78.9 | 72.9 | 84.4 |
 | Austria | J | ✓ | 13.5% | 76.0% | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 84.3 | 87.3 | 81.0 |
 | Australia | D | ✓ | 19.1% | 63.9% | 28.5% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 80.8 | 77.3 | 84.0 |
 | South Korea | A | ✓ | 18.2% | 69.4% | 30.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 80.4 | 76.3 | 84.1 |
 | Turkey | D* | 52.4% | 13.5% | 36.9% | 18.8% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 83.4 | 87.5 | 78.7 |
 | Scotland | C | ✓ | 10.3% | 69.2% | 23.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 80.0 | 80.7 | 79.2 |
 | Sweden | F* | 67.1% | 8.7% | 39.2% | 11.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 80.4 | 83.3 | 77.4 |
 | Tunisia | F | ✓ | 6.1% | 39.4% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 74.3 | 67.8 | 80.3 |
 | Czechia | A* | 41.0% | 7.4% | 27.5% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 76.6 | 78.1 | 75.0 |
 | Algeria | J | ✓ | 6.2% | 56.7% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 77.8 | 79.5 | 76.1 |
 | Poland | F* | 32.9% | 3.3% | 17.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 78.1 | 81.6 | 74.3 |
 | Ivory Coast | E | ✓ | 6.3% | 63.0% | 17.5% | 4.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 73.5 | 70.7 | 76.2 |
 | Jordan | J | ✓ | 2.6% | 32.7% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 69.3 | 66.2 | 72.4 |
 | Panama | L | ✓ | 3.4% | 41.0% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 70.1 | 69.4 | 70.7 |
 | DR Congo | K* | 65.6% | 1.5% | 21.4% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 69.5 | 65.9 | 73.1 |
 | New Zealand | G | ✓ | 5.9% | 40.0% | 10.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.8 | 61.0 | 70.6 |
 | Cape Verde | H | ✓ | 0.9% | 25.3% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.5 | 56.5 | 66.4 |
 | Uzbekistan | K | ✓ | 2.5% | 36.5% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 70.4 | 68.9 | 72.0 |
 | Kosovo | D* | 47.6% | 4.5% | 20.9% | 6.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 71.7 | 75.3 | 68.0 |
 | South Africa | A | ✓ | 4.8% | 32.8% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.5 | 61.7 | 71.2 |
 | Egypt | G | ✓ | 10.9% | 59.1% | 19.8% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 72.8 | 66.7 | 78.7 |
 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B* | 27.7% | 1.4% | 15.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 65.5 | 70.0 | 60.9 |
 | Bolivia | I* | 57.3% | 0.9% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.8 | 72.3 | 61.1 |
 | Ghana | L | ✓ | 2.2% | 31.8% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.5 | 61.5 | 71.5 |
 | Saudi Arabia | H | ✓ | 0.8% | 29.3% | 4.9% | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 63.3 | 57.1 | 69.5 |
 | Iraq | I* | 42.8% | 0.5% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61.5 | 53.8 | 69.2 |
 | Haiti | C | ✓ | 0.9% | 15.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 59.7 | 60.6 | 58.8 |
 | Curacao | E | ✓ | 0.5% | 12.0% | 1.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 53.1 | 52.6 | 53.5 |
 | Jamaica | K* | 34.4% | 0.2% | 5.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 57.8 | 51.9 | 63.7 |
 | Qatar | B | ✓ | 0.7% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 53.9 | 57.2 | 50.6 |